Ted Talk: Ben Goldacre:Click Here
Definitely worth watching.
Climate Change: New Report
What We Know:
“The overwhelming evidence of human-caused climate change documents both current impacts with significant costs and extraordinary future risks to society and natural systems. The scientific community has convened conferences, published reports, spoken out at forums and proclaimed, through statements by virtually every national scientific academy and relevant major scientific organization — including the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)—that climate change puts the well-being of people of all nations at risk.”
Read Report:Click Here
The New York Times had a story on March 18, 2014: Scientists Sound Alarm on Climate Change”, which talks about both the report and one of the authors. Check it out: Click Here
Polls show some public concern:
PEW: Millenials In Adulthood
PEW just published a study on the Millenials–
They found:
“The Millennial generation is forging a distinctive path into adulthood. Now ranging in age from 18 to 33, they are relatively unattached to organized politics and religion, linked by social media, burdened by debt, distrustful of people, in no rush to marry— and optimistic about the future.
They are also America’s most racially diverse generation. In all of these dimensions, they are different from today’s older generations. And in many, they are also different from older adults back when they were the age Millennials are now.
Pew Research Center surveys show that half of Millennials (50%) now describe themselves as political independents and about three-in-ten (29%) say they are not affiliated with any religion. These are at or near the highest levels of political and religious disaffiliation recorded for any generation in the quarter-century that the Pew Research Center has been polling on these topics.
At the same time, however, Millennials stand out for voting heavily Democratic and for liberal views on many political and social issues, ranging from a belief in an activist government to support for same-sex marriage and marijuana legalization.”
See Report:Click Here
PEW: Cost of Not Going to College
Over the years, there has been a lot of news articles suggesting that it was not cost-beneficial to go to college. PEW has just come out with a study tells a very different story for the millennials.
PEW writes: “On virtually every measure of economic well-being and career attainment—from personal earnings to job satisfaction to the share employed full time—young college graduates are outperforming their peers with less education. And when today’s young adults are compared with previous generations, the disparity in economic outcomes between college graduates and those with a high school diploma or less formal schooling has never been greater in the modern era.”
Read article: Click Here
Taubes: Why is Nutrition So Confusing?
The New York Times published an article by Gary Taubes that explores the challenges of scientific research when it comes to understanding nutrition.Click Here
He notes that obesity, and its related diseases like Type II diabetes, have increased dramatically since the 1960s. (Gail”s note: Leaving aside some increase is due to changing definitions, not all of the increase can be explained by that). The public discussion and research about those to issues has also increased dramatically. Taubes states, “In 1960, fewer than 1,100 articles were published on obesity or diabetes in the indexed medical literature. Last year it was more than 44,000. In total, over 600,000 articles have been published purporting to convey some meaningful information on these conditions.”
Yet, we really do not know much about causes or prevention or nutritional treatment. It is possible that our understanding about nutrition is flawed, or that our assumptions about people are flawed: that everyone’s body is the same, and what works for one person should work for everyone. Or our attachment to an beloved theory makes it hard to recognize that it does not really explain much or work: in my view, the restricted calories as the solution pretty much fails for a lot of people.
Taubes offers another possible explanation about all these articles: ” {They] are the noise generated by a dysfunctional research establishment. Because the nutrition research community has failed to establish reliable, unambiguous knowledge about the environmental triggers of obesity and diabetes, it has opened the door to a diversity of opinions on the subject, of hypotheses about cause, cure and prevention, many of which cannot be refuted by the existing evidence. Everyone has a theory. The evidence doesn’t exist to say unequivocally who’s wrong.” Continue reading
Politics: Lies and Deception
The Congressional Budget Office released its economic outlook report that included two appendices that dealt specifically with the Affordable Health Care Act.click here
Because a number of people work full-time solely to maintain insurance coverage (either because the cost of obtaining individual insurance would be prohibitive or because they would be unable to obtain any insurance because of pre-existing conditions), the Affordable Care Act will give people some options. CBO estimates that a number of people will opt to stop working or reduce their hours because they will have access to health insurance that no longer requires them to work full-time. For some, they might opt to retire at age 62, three years before they are eligible for Medicare. For others, they might decide to leave the workplace and start their own business or go back to school to launch a new career. For some, they will be able to drop down to a 32-hour workweek, to better meet the needs of their family. No doubt there are many other reasons.
Krugman says this was always known and CBO puts the estimate at around 2 million in this report. He then reports the tweet by Representative Eric Cantor, the House majority leader: “Under Obamacare, millions of hardworking Americans will lose their jobs and those who keep them will see their hours and wages reduced.” See: Twitter account
From my perspective, outright lies do not serve the public interest. It is one thing to disagree about a public policy, but deception, distortion, spinning–whatever it is called–is still a lie. And if a lie is the only thing you can say, then maybe it is time accept that you have no valid point and should just be quiet.
NY Times: Consumption of Middle Class Declines
In today’s New York Times, a story reports the decline of middle class consumption:
“As politicians and pundits in Washington continue to spar over whether economic inequality is in fact deepening, in corporate America there really is no debate at all. The post-recession reality is that the customer base for businesses that appeal to the middle class is shrinking as the top tier pulls even further away.”
“The top 5 percent of earners accounted for almost 40 percent of personal consumption expenditures in 2012, up from 27 percent in 1992. Largely driven by this increase, consumption among the top 20 percent grew to more than 60 percent over the same period” The bottom 80 percent accounted for just 39 percent in 2012, down from 47% in 1992.
The impact on the economy is noticeable. Upscale products and services are booming Stores that serve the middle class are not. “Sears and J. C. Penney, retailers whose wares are aimed squarely at middle-class Americans, are both in dire straits. Last month, Sears said it would shutter its flagship store on State Street in downtown Chicago, and J. C. Penney announced the closings of 33 stores and 2,000 layoffs.”
The article gives some examples of the impact of income inequality in terms of restaurants:
“Foot traffic at midtier, casual dining properties like Red Lobster and Olive Garden has dropped in every quarter but one since 2005, according to John Glass, a restaurant industry analyst at Morgan Stanley. With diners paying an average tab of $16.50 a person at Olive Garden, Mr. Glass said, “The customers are middle class. They’re not rich. They’re not poor.” With income growth stagnant and prices for necessities like health care and education on the rise, he said, “They are cutting back.” On the other hand, at the Capital Grille, an upscale Darden chain where the average check per person is about $71, spending is up by an average of 5 percent annually over the last three years.”
Read article: Click Here
Spinning Upward Mobility
Today (January 23, 2014), the New York Times had an article with the headline: “Upward Mobility Has Not Declined.” Reading just the headline, you might wonder what all the fuss is about. The lead paragraph states:
“The odds of moving up — or down — the income ladder in the United States have not changed appreciably in the last 20 years, according to a large new academic study that contradicts politicians in both parties who have claimed that income mobility is falling.”
But is the headline accurate? Not really. The author of the study, it appears, made the case that “Despite less discrimination of various kinds and a larger safety net than in previous decades, the odds of escaping the station of one’s birth are no higher today than they were decades ago.”
So, while mobility rates have not declined, they have not increased either. The more accurate summary would be that upward mobility has not changed in the past 2 decades. Continue reading
PEW Poll on Income Inequality
PEW released a report on its polling data about income inequality. To see their report: Click Here
They state:
“There is broad public agreement that economic inequality has grown over the past decade. But as President Obama prepares for Tuesday’s State of the Union, where he is expected to unveil proposals for dealing with inequality and poverty, there are wide partisan differences over how much the government should – and can – do to address these issues.”
“Partisans Agree Inequality Has Grown, But Differ Sharply over Gov’t Action: The new national survey by the Pew Research Center and USA TODAY, conducted Jan. 15-19 among 1,504 adults, finds that 65% believe the gap between the rich and everyone else has increased in the last 10 years. This view is shared by majorities across nearly all groups in the public, including 68% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans.” Continue reading
Gun Availability Increases Probability of Suicide and Homicide
A new meta analysis looks at the relationship between gun availability and gun deaths (homicide and suicide) was published in the Annals of Internal Medicine [2014;160(2):101-110-110. doi:10.7326/M13-1301.]
To see study:Click Here