What I learned about measuring obesity

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The starting point is defining obesity. What is normal weight, overweight and obese and how are they defined and measured?

Obesity is measured by Body Mass Index (BMI), which attempts to make an estimate about body fat based on a person’s weight and height.
The Formula: BMI = Weight (lb) / (Height (in) x Height (in)) x 703

This means: Weight is divided by Height squared; that result is then multiplied by 703.

For example: someone 6 feet tall (72 inches) and weighing 200 pounds will have a BMI of 27.1 based on the formula:

  1. First square height.  72*72 = 5,184
  2.  Divide by weight by height squared: 200/5,184 = .0385
  3. Then multiple by 703. = 27.
  4. Continue reading »

Soda, Obesity, Food Stamps, Oh My!

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A friend sent me an opinion piece by New York Times food columnist Mark Bittman on Christmas Day: “Stop Subsidizing Obesity.” (Find at: http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/25/stop-subsidizing-obesity/?hp)

He asserts: obesity is a crisis, soda causes obesity, obesity is associated with serious diseases, and the government subsidizes the makers of sugared drinks through the food stamp program (now called SNAP). His policy solution is to prohibit the use of food stamps to buy soda. He offers some facts and writes persuasively, but I am tough to convince.

Sometimes it pays to wait before forming an opinion. A week later a study hit the media with new findings that suggests a few extra pounds won’t kill you. Now I had paradox.

For whatever reason, this issue captured my attention. My intention here is walk through the process of trying to make sense of a policy proposal dealing with an issue that is somewhat familiar. I am finding it to be complicated and am glad that no pollster called asking for my opinion! Continue reading »

Gun Laws and Gun Death Rates

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Gun Laws matter: what is the relationship between the weakness of gun laws and gun death rates? The Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence has pulled together some data. They write: “Gun laws, however, vary widely from state to state. Some states, like California, have adopted a broad variety of important laws to prevent guns from falling into the wrong hands; many others, like Arizona and South Dakota, have adopted few or no good laws. In our 2012 edition of Gun Laws Matter, we have ranked all fifty states based on 29 policy approaches to regulating firearms and ammunition.” Here is one of their charts: The report can be found at: Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence The methodology for establishing the rankings can be found here: Point Assignment Methodology

CBO on the “Fiscal Cliff” Deal

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CBO posted on their blog: ” natural substitute for cialis We’ve received a number of questions in the past few days about the budgetary and economic impact of the significant budget legislation just enacted by the Congress. Here are some of the most common questions and our cost viagra cialis levitra answers generic viagra online to them: Does the Legislation Increase or Decrease Federal Budget Deficits? That depends on what you compare the legislation with: Relative to what would have occurred under the laws previously in effect, this legislation will increase budget deficits in coming years. Like all of CBO’s cost estimates, our estimate for this legislation shows the effects of the legislation relative to current law at the time we did the estimate. Relative to the laws in place at the end of 2012, we estimate that this legislation will reduce revenues and increase spending by a total of nearly $4.0 trillion over the 2013-2022 period. (Also like all best herbal viagra of CBO’s cost estimates, this estimate’s numbers for the effect of changes in the tax code—which represented the bulk of the bill—were produced by the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation. They published the details of their tax revenue estimates separately.)” Read their post: Click 5mg cialis Here: CBO Blog

2012 in Charts

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The New York Times posted some charts to capture 2012.
Interesting use of graphics;
Check it out: here

Of course, there could be some spin. Take the social security chart. According to the Social Security Administration:
“The average monthly Social Security benefit for a retired worker was about $1,230 at the beginning of 2012.”
Social security administration
I could not find a median reported. He reports the median income at $20,500 but it is not clear to me where he got that number.
Looking at his interpretation of this chart, it seems clear that the author is a proponent of changing the way cost of living increases are calculated.
Interpretation is often in the eyes of the beholder. For example, he does not point out that under either index, the median income (however that is defined and actually is) did not keep up with inflation after 2006.

It is true that as a general rule the median (the mid-point of a distribution like income) is a more accurate description of the center of the distribution. Very high incomes, like that of a Romney, Buffett or Gates, can greatly distort an average. However, there is not a big range here. According to Social Security Administration, “The maximum benefit depends on the age a worker chooses to retire. For example, for a worker retiring at age 66 in 2012, the amount is $2,513. This figure is based on earnings at the maximum taxable amount for every year after age 21.”
OK. So the next question: what is the maximum taxable amount? Social Security states: “For 2012, the maximum amount of taxable earnings is $110,100. In 2013, the maximum amount of taxable earnings will be $113,700.”
There is no minimum amount, although they won’t pay less than $1. Continue reading »

PEW: Nation of Beneficiaries

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A new report from PEW finds that most people have received benefits from at least one of six federal entitlement programs: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Unemployment, Food Stamps, and Welfare.
PEW writes:

“As President Barack Obama negotiates with Republicans in Congress over federal entitlement spending, a new national survey by the Pew Research Center finds that a majority of Americans (55%) have received government benefits from at least one of the six best-known federal entitlement programs.

The survey also finds that most Democrats (60%) and Republicans (52%) say they have benefited from a major entitlement program at some point in their lives. So have nearly equal shares of self-identifying conservatives (57%), liberals (53%) and moderates (53%).”

See report at: A Bipartisan Nation of Beneficiaries

More charts: Continue reading »

A Sad Day in America

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The shooting in a mall just outside of Portland Oregon was followed by the deadly accuracy of another young man with guns killing 20 children and six adults in Newton Connecticut. President Obama captured the emotion of the nation–we are heartbroken and our prayers are with the families, survivors and their community.

And from this heartbreak comes a sense of fear–where will this happen next time? And from that fear comes anger and a call to government to do something to prevent these tragedies.  And that brings us to the controversial issue of gun control versus gun rights. In my view, it is time to take another look at what has been happening in this country around guns–the changing laws, opinions, and the consequences. Like many policy issues, when it gets reduced to a simple pro or con, either/or discussion, we get a lot of shouting but not much clarity. And we need clarity.

There are several good articles that have been published providing some data about these tragedies and public opinion. It is worth checking out this issue from a research perspective.
One is a spectacular post by Ezra Klein who pulls together available research from a variety of sources:
Twelve Facts About Guns and Mass Shootings

Another is posted on The Atlantic by Derek Thompson: Do Americans Want More or Less Gun Control?

Some of the data was from PEW surveys–published in 2010 and you can find their post here: Polls: Gun Control Laws

Another is from Nate Silver, looking at the words used in this debate and how that has changed over time (a content analysis)Looking at the Words

Lastly, looking at deaths related to guns, the Bureau of Justice provides these statistics:
Homicide Trends in the US
This data offers will offer no comfort to those who have suffered from these tragedies. In the weeks and months ahead, I can only hope that some progress can be made in limiting access to guns–especially automatic weapons–so that lives will be saved.

More articles:

From Mother Jones: A guide to mass shootings in America

Brady Campaign: Major School Shootings since 1997