With the presidential election next week– and the media’s obsession with polling, even to the point of wondering if Hurricane Sandy will make it harder to poll (as if that’s an issue the millions of people affected by the storm are concerned about in this moment)– there has been a lot of discussion about the polling results as well as the methodology. Why do polls differ? Is there a bias? Are polls used to influence voting? What about cell phones? Why do pollsters weight the data and can that be used to alter the results intentionally? Can polls be trusted?

Scott Keeter, Director of Survey Research at PEW’s Research Center was on C-SPAN’s National Journal and explained how polling is done. Great information.
C-Span Video Interview with Scott Keeter
October 30, 2012

Another pollster– Nate Silver–is worth checking out.FiveThirtyEight Blog
Silver has been the center of the political infighting about polling results. See this article from US News and World Report: …the war on Nate Silver

Diane Rehms also had a show on polls on NPR on October
Transcript can be found at: Understanding Political Polls

I couldn’t resist this one. Here is the 7-11 presidential poll. Anyone can vote. Maybe many times?
What might explain why these results are substantially different than more traditional polls that use a random sample?
7-11 poll

PEW reported today that Republican support for tougher environmental protection laws has declined dramatically over time.

“For the first time in a Pew Research Center political values survey, only about half of Republicans (47%) agree that “there needs to be stricter laws and regulations to protect the environment.” This represents a decline of 17 points since 2009 and a fall of nearly 40 points, from 86%, since 1992. The partisan gap over this measure was modest two decades ago. Today, roughly twice as many Democrats as Republicans say stricter environmental laws and regulations are needed (93% vs. 47%).”

Read Report: PEW

Nate Silver posted this on his blog:

Source:  Nate Silver’s Blog

The date, he says: “According to surveys included in the PollingReport.com database, an average of 50 percent of American adults support same-sex marriage rights while 45 percent oppose it, based on an average of nine surveys conducted in the past year.”

President Obama came out in support of same-sex marriage. However, Nate Silver notes:

“It should be remembered that support for same-sex marriage in polls has not necessarily translated into support at the ballot booth. On Tuesday, North Carolina became the latest state to adopt a Constitutional ban on same-sex marriage and did so by a margin of about 20 percentage points, somewhat larger than polls forecast. The North Carolina measure also banned domestic partnerships and other types of civil unions.”

PEW reported today: “The gap between favorable ratings of the federal government and state and local governments is wider than ever. Just a third of Americans have a favorable opinion of the federal government, the lowest positive rating in 15 years. Yet opinions about state and local governments, on balance, remain favorable.

The favorable rating for the federal government has fallen to just 33%; while nearly twice as many (62%) have an unfavorable view, according to the latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, conducted April 4-15. By contrast, ratings of state governments remain in positive territory, with 52% offering a favorable and 42% and unfavorable opinion of their state government. Local governments are viewed positively by roughly a two-to-one margin.

Ten years ago, roughly two thirds of Americans offered favorable assessments of all three levels of government: federal, state and local.”

Find report at:Growing Gap

Latest from PEW:  “Santorum Catches Romney in GOP Race”

A nice valentine for Santorum.

According to PEW: “Rick Santorum’s has pulled into a virtual tie with Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Feb. 8-12.”

PEW Poll

It is a tie but the question is whether it will last.  The Republican race has seen almost every candidate in the lead for 15 minutes before they crashed, but it is perhaps a good reason to let the primaries roll-out over time and dismiss early anointing of front runners.

A tremendous amount of money is being spent by these candidates. Yet, for all this money, it may not be of much use when it comes to winning the presidency.  Obama, at this point in time, is looking better than the Republican candidates.  Of course, there is a long time until November and a lot can happen. And no doubt, Obama will spend a ridiculous amount of money too.

PEW Poll Feb. 2012